Stepping inside the niche: Microclimate data are critical for accurate assessment of species' vulnerability to climate change

Collin Storlie, Andres Merino-Viteri, Ben Phillips, Jeremy VanDerWal, Justin Welbergen, Stephen Williams

Producción científica: Contribución a una revistaArtículorevisión exhaustiva

49 Citas (Scopus)

Resumen

To assess a species' vulnerability to climate change, we commonly use mapped environmental data that are coarsely resolved in time and space. Coarsely resolved temperature data are typically inaccurate at predicting temperatures in microhabitats used by an organism and may also exhibit spatial bias in topographically complex areas. One consequence of these inaccuracies is that coarsely resolved layers may predict thermal regimes at a site that exceed species' known thermal limits. In this study, we use statistical downscaling to account for environmental factors and develop high-resolution estimates of daily maximum temperatures for a 36 000 km2 study area over a 38-year period. We then demonstrate that this statistical downscaling provides temperature estimates that consistently place focal species within their fundamental thermal niche, whereas coarsely resolved layers do not. Our results highlight the need for incorporation of fine-scale weather data into species' vulnerability analyses and demonstrate that a statistical downscaling approach can yield biologically relevant estimates of thermal regimes.

Idioma originalInglés
Número de artículo20140576
PublicaciónBiology Letters
Volumen10
N.º9
DOI
EstadoPublicada - 1 sep. 2014

Nota bibliográfica

Publisher Copyright:
© 2014 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society.

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