Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Jason Vleminckx; J. Aaron Hogan; Margaret R. Metz; Liza S. Comita; Simon A. Queenborough; S. Joseph Wright; Renato Valencia; Milton Zambrano; Nancy C. Garwood

doi:10.1111/ele.70019

Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Jason Vleminckx^*, J. Aaron Hogan, Margaret R. Metz, Liza S. Comita, Simon A. Queenborough, S. Joseph Wright, Renato Valencia, Milton Zambrano, Nancy C. Garwood

^*Autor correspondiente de este trabajo

Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales

Producción científica: Contribución a una revista › Artículo › revisión exhaustiva

1 Cita (Scopus)

Resumen

Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

Idioma original	Inglés
Número de artículo	e70019
Publicación	Ecology Letters
Volumen	28
N.º	4
DOI	https://doi.org/10.1111/ele.70019
Estado	Publicada - abr. 2025

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Publisher Copyright:
© 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Financiación

Financiadores	Número del financiador
University of Aarhus of Denmark
Aarhus Universitet
Center for Tropical Forest Science
Andrew W. Mellon Foundation
Southern Illinois University Carbondale
British Airways
Pontificia Universidad Católica del Ecuador
Department of Botany, University of Calcutta
Ministerio del Ambiente, Agua y Transición Ecológica
Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute
Natural History Museum
Yale University
Institute for Biospheric Studies, Yale University
National Science Foundation	DEB‐1754668, DEB‐0614525, DEB‐1754632, DEB‐1122634
Natural Environment Research Council	GR9/04037

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@article{d8aed45247294c85998fb2355bc3d21f,

title = "Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest",

abstract = "Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.",

keywords = "Western Amazonia, climate change, everwet tropical forests, forest reproduction, relative humidity, seed production, solar irradiance, temperature",

author = "Jason Vleminckx and Hogan, {J. Aaron} and Metz, {Margaret R.} and Comita, {Liza S.} and Queenborough, {Simon A.} and Wright, {S. Joseph} and Renato Valencia and Milton Zambrano and Garwood, {Nancy C.}",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2025 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.",

year = "2025",

month = apr,

doi = "10.1111/ele.70019",

language = "English",

volume = "28",

journal = "Ecology Letters",

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T1 - Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

AU - Vleminckx, Jason

AU - Hogan, J. Aaron

AU - Metz, Margaret R.

AU - Comita, Liza S.

AU - Queenborough, Simon A.

AU - Wright, S. Joseph

AU - Valencia, Renato

AU - Zambrano, Milton

AU - Garwood, Nancy C.

PY - 2025/4

Y1 - 2025/4

N2 - Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

AB - Examining the cues and drivers influencing seed production is crucial to better understand forest resilience to climate change. We explored the effects of five climatic variables on seed production over 22 years in an everwet Amazonian forest, by separating direct effects of these variables from indirect effects mediated through flower production. We observed a decline in seed production over the study period, which was primarily explained by direct effects of rising nighttime temperatures and declining average vapour pressure deficits. Higher daytime temperatures were positively related to seed output, mainly through a flower-mediated effect, while rainfall effects on seed production were more nuanced, showing either positive or negative relationships depending on the seasonal timing of rains. If these trends continue, they are likely to lead to significant changes in forest dynamics, potentially impacting both forest structure and species composition.

KW - Western Amazonia

KW - climate change

KW - everwet tropical forests

KW - forest reproduction

KW - relative humidity

KW - seed production

KW - solar irradiance

KW - temperature

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U2 - 10.1111/ele.70019

DO - 10.1111/ele.70019

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SN - 1461-023X

VL - 28

JO - Ecology Letters

JF - Ecology Letters

IS - 4

M1 - e70019

ER -

Seed Production and 22 Years of Climatic Changes in an Everwet Neotropical Forest

Resumen

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Financiación

ODS de las Naciones Unidas

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