Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast

David Zaldumbide; Alejandro Pacheco

Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast

David Zaldumbide
, Alejandro Pacheco^*

^*Autor correspondiente de este trabajo

Producción científica: Revista › Artículo de la conferencia › revisión exhaustiva

Resumen

Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

Idioma original	Inglés
Páginas (desde-hasta)	87-100
Número de páginas	14
Publicación	CEUR Workshop Proceedings
Volumen	3282
Estado	Publicada - 27 oct 2022
Publicado de forma externa	Sí
Evento	Joint 5th International Conference on Applied Informatics Workshops, ICAIW 2022: 3rd International Workshop on Applied Artificial Intelligence, WAAI 2022, 4th International Workshop on Applied Informatics for Economy, Society, and Development, AIESD 2022, 5th International Workshop on Data Engineering and Analytics, WDEA 2022, 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Mobility Technology, WITS 2022, 2nd International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Information Technologies, WKMIT 2022 and 1st International Workshop on Systems Modeling, WSSC 2022 - Arequipa, Perú Duración: 27 oct 2022 → 29 oct 2022

Nota bibliográfica

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

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title = "Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast",

abstract = "Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17\%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.",

keywords = "ARIMA, C10, Exports, Forecast, Shrimp Price, Supply and Demand, Time Series",

author = "David Zaldumbide and Alejandro Pacheco",

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AU - Pacheco, Alejandro

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N2 - Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

AB - Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

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KW - C10

KW - Exports

KW - Forecast

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KW - Supply and Demand

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T2 - Joint 5th International Conference on Applied Informatics Workshops, ICAIW 2022: 3rd International Workshop on Applied Artificial Intelligence, WAAI 2022, 4th International Workshop on Applied Informatics for Economy, Society, and Development, AIESD 2022, 5th International Workshop on Data Engineering and Analytics, WDEA 2022, 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Mobility Technology, WITS 2022, 2nd International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Information Technologies, WKMIT 2022 and 1st International Workshop on Systems Modeling, WSSC 2022

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