Crime and Recidivism in Ecuador

This study examined the demographic characteristics that drive crime and recidivism in Ecuador using the first National Penitentiary Census (2022) that covers prisoners over 18 years nationwide. In descriptive statistics and econometric analysis, education was found to be the main predictor of recidivism. In the case of having a job out of prison, on average, they are most likely to be under-employed and earn less than the minimum wage. More past arrests were associated with a lower probability of attending rehabilitation programs. We found age-crime curves for robbery, drug trafficking, and gun possession. In terms of recidivism, murder, robbery, theft, and weapon possession were the crimes with the highest recidivism rates within the same crime. The highest recidivism rates between crimes were weapon possession-robbery and weapon possession-drug trafficking.