Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast

David Zaldumbide; Alejandro Pacheco

Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast

David Zaldumbide
, Alejandro Pacheco^*

^*Corresponding author for this work

Research output: Contribution to journal › Conference article › peer-review

Abstract

Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	87-100
Number of pages	14
Journal	CEUR Workshop Proceedings
Volume	3282
State	Published - 27 Oct 2022
Externally published	Yes
Event	Joint 5th International Conference on Applied Informatics Workshops, ICAIW 2022: 3rd International Workshop on Applied Artificial Intelligence, WAAI 2022, 4th International Workshop on Applied Informatics for Economy, Society, and Development, AIESD 2022, 5th International Workshop on Data Engineering and Analytics, WDEA 2022, 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Mobility Technology, WITS 2022, 2nd International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Information Technologies, WKMIT 2022 and 1st International Workshop on Systems Modeling, WSSC 2022 - Arequipa, Peru Duration: 27 Oct 2022 → 29 Oct 2022

Bibliographical note

Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

SDG 14 Life Below Water

Keywords

ARIMA
C10
Exports
Forecast
Shrimp Price
Supply and Demand
Time Series

Cite this

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title = "Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast",

abstract = "Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17\%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.",

keywords = "ARIMA, C10, Exports, Forecast, Shrimp Price, Supply and Demand, Time Series",

author = "David Zaldumbide and Alejandro Pacheco",

note = "Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2022 Copyright for this paper by its authors. Use permitted under Creative Commons License Attribution 4.0 International (CC BY 4.0).; Joint 5th International Conference on Applied Informatics Workshops, ICAIW 2022: 3rd International Workshop on Applied Artificial Intelligence, WAAI 2022, 4th International Workshop on Applied Informatics for Economy, Society, and Development, AIESD 2022, 5th International Workshop on Data Engineering and Analytics, WDEA 2022, 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Mobility Technology, WITS 2022, 2nd International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Information Technologies, WKMIT 2022 and 1st International Workshop on Systems Modeling, WSSC 2022 ; Conference date: 27-10-2022 Through 29-10-2022",

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AU - Zaldumbide, David

AU - Pacheco, Alejandro

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Y1 - 2022/10/27

N2 - Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

AB - Ecuador has a historic dependence on the export of its raw materials to generate income. This makes its economy extremely vulnerable to external imbalances. During 2021, the export of products such as bananas and shrimp fell to 17%, which can be explained by the changes in consumption habits brought about by the pandemic. This research aims to take an in-depth look at price forecasts for shrimp farming. For this purpose, an ARIMA econometric analysis was used. We considered 66 monthly price and export observations collected from the beginning of 2017 to the middle of 2022 in order to forecast 24 prices for the second semester of 2022, 2023, until June of 2024, with the idea being to use this to make better public policy decisions at the shrimp's sector.

KW - ARIMA

KW - C10

KW - Exports

KW - Forecast

KW - Shrimp Price

KW - Supply and Demand

KW - Time Series

UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85143254450

M3 - Artículo de la conferencia

AN - SCOPUS:85143254450

SN - 1613-0073

VL - 3282

SP - 87

EP - 100

JO - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

JF - CEUR Workshop Proceedings

T2 - Joint 5th International Conference on Applied Informatics Workshops, ICAIW 2022: 3rd International Workshop on Applied Artificial Intelligence, WAAI 2022, 4th International Workshop on Applied Informatics for Economy, Society, and Development, AIESD 2022, 5th International Workshop on Data Engineering and Analytics, WDEA 2022, 1st International Workshop on Intelligent Transportation Systems and Smart Mobility Technology, WITS 2022, 2nd International Workshop on Knowledge Management and Information Technologies, WKMIT 2022 and 1st International Workshop on Systems Modeling, WSSC 2022

Y2 - 27 October 2022 through 29 October 2022

ER -

Dynamic Models to Determine External Factors and their Impact on the Shrimp Price Forecast

Abstract

Bibliographical note

UN SDGs

Keywords

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Cite this