Compositional spatio-temporal PM_2.5 modelling in wildfires

Wildfires are natural ecological processes that generate high levels of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) that are dispersed into the atmosphere. PM2.5 could be a potential health problem due to its size. Having adequate numerical models to predict the spatial and temporal distribution of PM2.5 helps to mitigate the impact on human health. The compositional data approach is widely used in the environmental sciences and concentration analyses (parts of a whole). This numerical approach in the modelling process avoids one common statistical problem: the spurious correlation. PM2.5 is a part of the atmospheric composition. In this way, this study developed an hourly spatio-temporal PM2.5 model based on the dynamic linear modelling framework (DLM) with a compositional approach. The results of the model are extended using a Gaussian–Mattern field. The modelling of PM2.5 using a compositional approach presented adequate quality model indices (NSE = 0.82, RMSE = 0.23, and a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.91); however, the correlation range showed a slightly lower value than the conventional/traditional approach. The proposed method could be used in spatial prediction in places without monitoring stations.